Trivial Pursuit?
Investor lust for hard assets has dimmed gold’s status as
the world’s premier non government-issued form of money. Conventional wisdom
now holds that gold, oil, and base metals are inextricably linked. For example, on October 18, the Bloomberg
headline said “Gold Drops for Second Straight Day After Crude-Oil Prices
Slide.” Investment strategists have
recast gold into a sub species of hard assets that is to be bought or sold only
according to its weighting in a commodity index such as the CRB, GSCI, or
DJ-AIG. It is a fate for the yellow
metal that would make any latter day central banker smile.
Gold’s recent sharp correction as well as its earlier sharp
run up in the first half of this year is a case of mistaken identity. Perhaps hundreds of billions of new
institutional money has flowed into the commodity sector. Proponents have billed it as an “alternative
asset class,” and imply the returns would somehow be uncorrelated with
financial assets. In most cases the
mandates have provided for passive adherence to an agreed upon commodity
index. This money flow was anticipated
and front run by hedge funds and other aggressive managers.
Approximately two months ago, Wall Street fashionistas
decreed that “hard assets” were out and “paper assets” were in. In the space of
a few weeks, prophesies of insatiable China-driven demand for “stuff” were
replaced by scenarios of a goldilocks soft landing, tame inflation, interest
rate hikes on hold, and new highs for equities and bonds. The shift caused leveraged bets on
commodities to unwind in a short space of time.
Gold was caught in the cross fire, and suffered a steep 20% correction
from its peak above $720/ounce in early May.
In a world where gold is perceived as a minor hard asset, it
is easy to conclude that this relic has been once and for all time written out
the script of monetary affairs. At a
Sanford Bernstein conference May 31, 2006, even one time gold champion Alan
Greenspan recently said in response to a question about the recent strength in
the gold price: “There is only a
relatively small group of investors who very seriously believe that there is a
high level of risk that the (financial) system could break down. You only need a relatively small group to
believe this to move the price of gold.”
In other words, the metal’s price behavior reflects the trivial
obsessions of a discredited fraction of investment opinion. Or, if one prefers another fair weather
explanation for the strength in the metal’s price, suitable for CNBC viewers,
prosperous Asians just love the stuff.
The bull market in gold has become an obscure footnote to the
Though recently retired, Mr. Greenspan’s insight on the bull
market in gold was very likely formulated while he was Fed Chairman and likely
constitutes the official party line of most central bankers on the
subject. The fusion of the CNBC mind set
with Fed speak on the subject of gold’s relevance is nothing less than a
triumph of brainwashing and delusion. As
Werner Erhardt, founder of the EST movement once stated: “In life, understanding is the booby
prize.” On the matter of understanding,
we prefer Emerson’s view: “The years teach much which the days never knew.”
Until gold broke above the 350 Euros/oz barrier that had
contained it for four years, conventional wisdom held that the currency was a
superior way to hedge dollar weakness because it had both yield and liquidity
in its favor. In our March, 2005 website
article, “Euro Trash,” we noted that the relaxation of the stability pact which
was supposed to underpin the integrity of the currency was good news for
gold. Within two months, gold broke
above the supposedly impenetrable threshold, and signaled a new advance of
nearly a year in which gold attained new highs against all currencies. Gold’s current identity crisis will be
resolved when it breaks to new highs against a basket of commodities.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that much of the hot
money pouring into oil spilled over into gold. For example, the September 30,
2006 8-Ks filed by the hedge fund Amaranth show large positions in nearly two
dozen gold and base metals stocks. It is
likely that most of the Amaranth wannabes had similar exposure. Even if a
relationship lacks any sound logic, since when did flawed thinking stand in the
way of investment decision making? Can’t
get out of illiquid positions in energy?
Sell whatever you can to meet margin calls, including gold shares. While there may be something to the short term
connection between the precious metals and energy, review of the chart below
will show that oil and gold can and have traded in widely divergent ratios
since the gold price began to float in 1971.
Source: Zeal LLC
Gold’s price behavior relative to other commodities is
inherently unpredictable precisely because of its monetary nature. The linkage attributed in the current
mythology has no historical basis. If
the relationship between gold and oil was as deterministic as current
commentary implies, gold should revert to the historical ratio of 7.2 ounces
per 100 barrels of oil, or $830/ ounce.
While the price action of the two commodities can influence each other
from time to time, to suggest there is a strict causal relationship is
nonsense.
Over the past ten years, gold has been the tortoise in the
race against economically sensitive commodities:
Source:Baseline
A long term chart of gold vs. other commodities also shows a
great deal of variance:
Source:Lonmin Plc
The hard asset theme rests explicitly on the notion that the
rapidly growing Asian economies will consume ever greater quantities of
stuff. There is also an implicit
monetary rationale: hard assets offer an escape from depreciating
currencies. However, this rationale has
rarely been voiced during the rush into tangibles. Finally, investors in commodity baskets or
indices expect uncorrelated returns.
Hard asset craze or not, an appraisal of the usual gold
supply and demand plusses and minuses is decidedly robust. In fact, these factors seem more favorable
than seven years ago when gold was less than half its current price. World gold production has declined since 2000
despite a more than 100% increase in the gold price.
Source:World Gold Council
Explanations include heightened political risk in host
countries, substantial increases in the time between discovery and permitting,
and substantial rises in operating and capital costs. Large mining companies are challenged to
maintain current production, much less to achieve gains. What used to be permitted in six months now
often takes six years, according to
Source: BMO Capital Markets Research
Central bank selling has begun to abate. In the most recent twelve months, the
European central banks sold only 393 tonnes against a ceiling of 500 tonnes,
the first shortfall since 1999. More
important, high profile sales have been offset by unpublicized central bank
buying. The dollar’s role as an
international reserve asset is being subjected to a level of criticism
unthinkable a few years ago. Just days
after newly minted Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had returned from his trip
to China, The Financial Times
reported (Sept 25, 2006) that Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Prime Minister, and Zeng
Qinghong, Vice President, confirmed that “the government is considering whether
to buy gold, considered a hedge against the potential of a falling US
dollar.”
More powerful than all of the foregoing considerations
together is the November 2004 launch and subsequent success of the gold
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the
ticker GLD. The World Gold Council notes
in its third quarter Gold Investment Digest that there are seven new gold
exchange traded funds listed on ten stock exchanges around the world, holding
in excess of 500 tonnes, now ten with the secondary listing of GLD on the
Singapore Exchange. This gold rests
securely in the vaults of HSBC beneath the streets of
Source: World Gold Council,
www.exchangetradedgold.com, www.ishares.com, Bloomberg
The gold ETF is a trust instrument in which shares are
created or redeemed on a daily basis. A
network of dealers, known as “authorized participants,” have the right to buy
or sell gold in exchange for GLD shares from the trust. If the price of GLD (the ETF) is above the
price of physical gold, the dealers will short GLD, buy gold, and deliver it to
the trust in exchange for shares to cover the trade. If the price is below, they will short
physical and deliver shares of GLD to cover.
GLD shares are created only if the dealers deliver gold to the trust in
exchange for the shares. Shares are
redeemed (and the underlying gold of the GLD trust shrinks) when the dealers
have shorted physical and cover by delivering shares back to the trust. Under normal circumstances, there is
substantial liquidity in the shares and the process of share creation or
redemption doesn’t come into play.
However, the day to day profits from trading the shares are identical to
the same skimpy margins as on any other exchange traded security. The financial incentives for the dealers lie
in the arbitrage profits to be gained from share creation or redemption.
While conventional supply and demand factors strongly
influence market perceptions, gold is above all a capital market asset. As the chart below depicts, annual supply and
demand factors are dwarfed by the amount of above ground gold. For example, a 10% increase in new mine supply,
or 250 tonnes, would represent an increase of .00016% to the global stock of
+/- 150,000 tonnes.
Source: GFMS Ltd.
For centuries, gold has been all but inaccessible to the
investment public. Available
alternatives included commodity accounts, coins, bars, and arrangements with
bullion banks, none of them mainstream options. To the financial media, COMEX
futures represent the principal expression of capital market interest or
disinterest in gold. What
ignorance! Notoriously volatile, futures
markets simply do not have the capacity to transform capital inflows or
outflows into a potential $100 billion market capitalization asset. While trading volume on futures contracts is
much greater than the ETF, futures contracts are paper bets with underlying
gold coverage of only 25%. The current
COMEX figures (October 30) indicate warehouse stocks of 7.6 mm oz. against open
interest 32 mm oz. In contrast, the gold
ETF is 100% backed by gold bullion. While
price action in futures contracts makes all the media noise, a clearer picture
of investment interest in gold emerges in the details behind the ETF.
The ETF has become the bridge between the capital markets,
central banks, and the souks. It has emerged
as an omnibus financial vehicle for obtaining protection, reflecting
uncertainty, and hedging bets. In our
opinion, the market cap of GLD will one day approximate that of the global gold
mining share sector or $100 billion. Our
reasoning is that GLD taps a different investor base than those attracted to
mining shares or commodity futures trading accounts. The core group of GLD
investors appears risk averse and focused on the underlying metal’s insurance
value, not the pyrotechnics of day to day price action. The demand for gold based on risk protection
seems potentially far larger and deeper than speculative demand as expressed by
gold mining shares or commodity futures.
During shakeouts in the gold market, the gold ETF has
demonstrated stability that is not apparent in other gold investment
vehicles. Much, and probably most, of
ETF gold is in very strong hands such as pension funds, endowments and
individuals who are thinking in generational terms. Despite the 20% decline in the gold price since
its 2006 high in early May, holdings of the gold ETF have increased from 11.5
mm ounces to 12.4 mm oz. at the end of September. In contrast, the net long position
represented by futures contracts declined 36% in the third quarter.
The World Gold Council recently published an academic study
titled: “Gold as a Strategic Asset.”
(www.gold.org) The study was authored by
New Frontier Advisors, LLC, an institutional research firm “specializing in the
development and application of state of the art investment technology.” The study concludes that “gold is not a
substitute for other assets but adds diversifying power across much of the risk
spectrum.” While commodity indices also can
provide diversification, the report notes, there is no reason to believe “that
they have superior return.” We would add
that investment in commodity indices are essentially a paper, institutional
arrangement, and cannot offer physical commodity backup comparable to the gold
ETF. The study goes on to say that gold
provides strategic diversification benefits in allocations of 1%-4% in long
term institutional portfolios. It is
worth noting that a mere 1% allocation to physical gold by a significant
percentage of long term institutional portfolios through the ETF could only be
accomplished through a gold price that is well into four digit territory. The chart below shows that an allocation of
this modest magnitude would require over 38,000 tonnes of gold, or roughly 25%
of all the gold that has ever been mined. Note that gold has been correctly
positioned by the World Gold Council study as a sober, rational, and
conservative instrument to protect capital.
It would undoubtedly disappoint Mr. Greenspan to learn that there is no
mention of financial armageddon in the study.
Potential Impact of a 1.3% Increase
in Investment Allocation to Gold
Note: Assumes 1) No price impact and 2) Based
on the 12 month average gold price to September 22, 2006 of $569.29/oz.
Source: World Gold Council.
The future direction of the gold price depends less on
whether mine production takes an unexpected upturn or nose dive, than on
whether capital markets decide to demand greater risk protection. The most important thing an investor needs to
know about whether to commit to gold is the answer to this question.
Considering a stock market flirting with record highs and a VIX index hovering
near record lows, there seems to be ample room for a mood change. Buyer’s remorse may lurk just around the
corner. Advance knowledge of the precise
trigger is impossible to divine, but a casual reading of the pages of the New York Times might prompt a few
suggestions. For those with more time,
we recommend the Bank for International Settlements web site which contains
extensive commentary on the matter of risk and financial markets: “The search for yield can lead to serious
distortions, and the potential for future instability, as investors both
purchase inherently riskier assets and use increased leverage to do so.” We could not have said it better ourselves.
What we can and do know is that, should fear revisit the
financial markets, buying power for gold is without precedent. While the gold mining industry struggles to
produce 2500 tonnes per year, an amount that would increase the above ground
stock of gold by a paltry 1.7%, the financial system continually spews out a
blizzard of new financial assets, all of which represent potential claims for
liquidity and safety.
In the bleak days of 1935, the market cap of above ground
gold equaled 15% of US financial assets.
In 1980, when bonds were dubbed “certificates of confiscation” and good
quality equities traded at 6x earnings and 6% dividend yields, that same
percentage was 29%. In today’s carefree world, that percentage is only 3%. The price of gold can double or triple in the
absence of catastrophic outcomes simply as more investors attempt to position
the ETF.
The chart below shows the above ground stock of gold marked to
market in 1935, 1980 and year end 2005 as a percentage of US financial assets.
However, in today’s world of globalized financial markets, is it enough to use
only
Source:Tocqueville Asset Management LP
The foregoing analysis makes the assumption that all above
ground gold is available to capital flows.
In reality more than half has been consumed for high end jewelry, art,
or simply lost. Gold prices at less
than $600 are a gift to any investor who can discern the difference between the
precious metal and all other commodities. Nobody buys a gold Rolex to stave off
doomsday. Therefore, the market cap of
above ground gold is not $3 trillion, but most likely half of that. Gold is precious because it is scarce,
compact and impossible to dilute through the mischief of government. Its monetary qualities are conferred not by
government decree but by the acclamation of history. Governments can write gold out of the script
as legal tender but they are powerless to remove the metal’s monetary
qualities. The defining difference between gold and oil lies in gold’s dual
role as an alternative to paper money and as a luxury object of conspicuous
consumption.
The idea that all “hard” assets provide a safe haven from
depreciating currencies is a dangerous one.
It might seem valid for a while based upon the power of common belief to
generate capital flows, but it will inevitably fall apart during periods of
severe economic distortion caused by monetary imbalances. Efforts to trivialize gold’s monetary
significance are a key to the present day money illusion, that more paper
equals more prosperity. It is far more
palatable to the political and economic establishment to explain away the
strength in the price of gold as a consequence of growing Asian prosperity or
the reflection of an extreme fringe of investment thought (as suggested by
Greenspan) than to read it as a reflection of flawed economic policies, archaic
conventions, and corrupt institutions. A
rise in the price of gold is equivalent to a fall in the value of financial
assets. The strength in the metal is a
sign of distrust in the ability of present day financial instruments, including
paper currencies, to preserve capital over time. The global bid for physical gold is
potentially immense. It will be generated not by ephemeral and flaky
speculative interests seeking instant gratification, but rather by the
considered actions of capital interests with a long term perspective driven
primarily by the desire to convey present day wealth to future generations.
John Hathaway
© Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.
October 31, 2006
The views expressed by the portfolio manager in this article are current as of the date of this article, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other considerations
New York, NY 10019