France at a Crossroads

Having just returned from working for two weeks in France, I am worried.  I think the country’s political-economic situation is dire and could turn disastrous, depending on which way the country’s presidential elections go in the first voting round, next Sunday, and the second round two weeks later.

Like most modern democracies, France alternates between conservative and progressive political movements, and the present electoral campaign has exposed enormous cleavage between the two.  Contrary to conventional wisdom, the progressive forces are embodied by the parties on the Right, while the reactionary forces are represented by the parties of the Left. 

In every area that involves intellectual capital the French have proved they can compete and succeed in the First Division of world powers.  The problem is that a substantial percentage of the French population does not want to compete.  They want to enjoy a comfortable life style, protected by the State and not subject to challenge or change. 

It is not encouraging that a majority of young people leaving school want to become civil servants, where they are guaranteed jobs for life, short hours, long vacations, early retirement and complete protection from economic stress thanks to their all-powerful trade unions.  And with 40% of the electorate responding “undecided” to polls on the eve of the election, it clearly could go either way.

Nicolas Sarkozy, on the Right, is a feisty and not very likeable person ready to upset the old ways.  Sélè Royal, smart, good-looking and also not very likeable, is equally impatient to implement her “100 point” program of traditional Socialism, with more government, more “welfare,” more taxes on the “rich” and handouts for everyone else.  François Bayrou promotes himself as a middle way and appeals as the one candidate who will change nothing, which is not what France needs.  He can easily make that promise because he has no party, no organization and no program.

If Sarkozy wins, the Communist CGT union will fight him in the streets in an attempt to paralyze France.  It is a tactic that has always worked.  If Royal wins, the industrial and financial elite will look elsewhere.  Many have already emigrated.  If Bayrou wins, it’s likely to be more what the French call immobilisme.

The biggest economic disaster in French history was the revocation of the Edict of Nantes, which deprived French Protestants of their religious freedom and drove them abroad at the dawn of capitalism.  This proved to be a huge gift to England, Germany, Switzerland and the Low Countries because those regions gained the most dynamic elements in French society.  It set back France for centuries.  It could happen again.

Colin Ferenbach
April 17, 2007