Hitting The Ground Running

Some Preliminary Comments On The French Elections

The results are in and it is the unabashedly rightist candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy, who will lead France for the next five years.

The press was quick to label his a “clear” victory, with 53% of the vote against 47% for the Socialist candidate, Segolene Royal. However, it should be noted that these figures are only computed on the votes that were both expressed and valid. If one deducts the approximately 16% of abstentions (a near-record participation rate) and the 4.2% of blank or void votes, Sarkozy was only elected with 42.7% of the votes of all registered voters (against 37.8% for Royal).

On a more positive note, according to a recent survey, 77% of those voting for Sarkozy actually wanted him to be President, while 18% voted to avoid a Segolene Royal presidency. In contrast, only 55% of those who voted for Royal actually wanted her as president, while 42% voted for “anybody but Sarkozy” – partly due to a fairly ugly leftist  campaign depicting him as an unstable individual with dictatorial ambitions.

Many disappointed observers among the left claimed that Sarkozy had been preparing for the campaign for five years, while Segolene’s campaign effort was more recent and more improvised. To me, there is more to this. Sarkozy actually was better prepared to be President: he had a clear program, well articulated and often supported with figures, whereas Segolene’s promises remained at the level of well-meaning but very general slogans.

Upon winning, Sarkozy immediately appealed to his supporters to respect and include the opposition in France’s effort to re-invent itself politically. This will likely be reflected very quickly in concrete actions, for two reasons: it is his intention to exercise this type of leadership (“I say what I will do and I will do what I said”) and it is necessary to his future ability to implement his program. He needs a working majority in parliament to implement the various facets of his program.

Parliamentary elections are due to take place in June, but Sarkozy will actually take over as President on May 16. His first act will be to name a cabinet with only 15 ministers. Many expect surprises, with members of the center party and even the socialist or green opposition likely to be included.

Some elements of his program, on which he feels he has received a clear mandate from the electorate (tax break on extra-hours worked) or where there is broad agreement with the opposition (environment) will likely be pushed onto the table almost immediately – even before the parliamentary elections.

This type of activism will consolidate his image as a “doer” and capitalize on the looming disintegration of the socialist party where the “elephants” are already blaming each other for the presidential defeat, with a cleavage appearing between leftists and centrists. Even with the natural taste of the French electorate for balancing the presidential powers with an opposition majority in Parliament, he might be able to gather enough support to allow him to push forward his other initiatives.

Sarkozy may disappoint foreign observers who expect him to be an advocate of unbound free enterprise and an unconditional supporter of the United States. The Sarkozy presidency is likely to be more nationalistic and a bit more “protectionist” than hoped by Americans, for example.

Nevertheless, he is a true admirer of America’s democracy and business dynamism, and he has always stayed clear of the typical bashing of America that is common among the French elites and media.

Because he is a great communicator and he likes to fight for his ideas and to convince, he may augur a profound change in France’s outlook and initiate a new momentum of optimism.

That, at least, is what we must hope for.

François Sicart, in Paris
May 8, 2007