Is Gold Still In a Bull Market?

Since the Bear Stearns bailout at the end of the first quarter, the backdrop for gold has unfolded in a more positive way than almost any of its proponents could have imagined. The government takeover of the GSEs, the Lehman Bankruptcy, the disappearance of blue chip investment banks, and continuing intense credit market stress despite the Paulson bailout of the financial system have generated successive new highs in the climate of fear overhanging the financial markets. These successive highs in stress can be measured objectively in the shrinking yields of short dated government securities and escalating credit spreads of all descriptions.

In light of all of this, why hasn’t gold done better? Year over year, gold bullion is up 25.9%, but is well below its peak price above $1000/ounce six months ago. Gold shares have not participated in the flight to safety and have in fact provided disappointing returns over the past six months, during one of the most intense financial market panics of recent history.

Is gold still in a bull market?


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John Hathaway 

8 Oct 2008